International Society for Intercommunication of New Ideas

ISINI-15 Wroclaw, 16-17 May 2024

The fifteenth international conference of the International Society for the Intercommunication of New Ideas (ISINI) is organized in cooperation with the WSB University in Wrocław, the Scientific Federation WSB-DSW Merito, the DSW University of Lower Silesia, the Power of Cooperation International (POCI), the Research Centre for System Risk Management, and the Center for Energy and Value Issues (CEVI).

Location: ul. Fabryczna 29-31, 53-609 Wrocław. Building A, Room 220

Thursday 16 May 2024

09:00-09:15 Opening session (Room A220)

09:15-09:45 Key note - establishment of the Research Centre for System Risk Management (Room A220)

09:45-11:30 ISINI Session 1 – cybersecurity (Chair: André Dorsman) (Room A220)

1. André Dorsman, Research Centre for System Risk Management

Title: Cyber security, a public-private cooperation

Discussant: Joost Platje

2. Arturo Capasso, Università degli Studi del Sannio, Benevento Italy - WSB Merito Wroclaw Poland, Matteo Rossi – Università del Sannio Italy, WSB Merito Poznan Poland 

Title: Looking for a financial methodology to evaluate cybersecurity investments

Discussant: André Dorsman

3. Sohrab Asgari, PNU, Tehran, Iran

Title: Geopolitics of cybernetics (Online)

Discussant: Joost Platje

4. Marek Krótkiewicz, Krystian Wojtkiewicz, Wrocław University of Technology and Science, Poland

Title: Cybersecurity and System Risk

Discussant: André Dorsman

11:30-11:45 Coffee Break

11:45-12:45 ISINI Session 2 – system risk (Chair: Monika Chodorek) (Room A220)

5. Nadar Shah, Research Centre for System Risk Management

Title: Intersectionality and Disasters: The perception, experiences, and responses of immigrants to heatwaves in the context of climate change in Southampton City, UK.

Discussant: Wim Westerman

6. Krystian Wojtkiewicz, Wrocław University of Technology and Science, Poland, Joost Platje, WSB Merito University in Wrocław, Research Centre for System Risk Management, Poland

Title: Principles of developing an instrument for assessing the ignorance of system risk.

Discussant: Diana Rokita

12:45-13:45 Lunch Break

13:45-14:45 ISINI Session 3 (Chair: Krystian Wojtkiewicz) (Room A220)

7. Diana Rokita-Poskart, Brygida Klemens, Danuta Jędrzejewska, Anna Jędrzejewska, Opole University of Technology, Poland

Title: Beyond Borders: Environmental Influences on Medical Students' Settlement Decisions

Discussant: Joost Platje

8. Bartosz Fortuński, Opole University, Poland

Title: The impact of China's foreign trade on their Actual-Open CO2 emissions in the years 2000-2020 in the context of EU energy policy.

Discussant: Wim Westerman

14:45-15:00 Coffee Break

CEVI - Special CEVI Sessions on Energy and Value Issues

15:00-16:30 CEVI Parallel Session 1 (Chair: Mehmet Baha Karan) (Room A220)

9. Mehmet Baha Karan, Kazim Baris Atici, Burak Pirgaip, Hacettepe University, Türkiye

Title: A Scenario Analysis on European Natural Gas Politics

Discussant: Göktuğ Şahin (online)

10. Mehmet Baha Karan, Kazim Baris Atici, Burak Pirgaip, Hacettepe University, Türkiye, Göktuğ Şahin, Ankara Haci Bayram Veli University, Türkiye

Title: The Natural Gas War Between Europe and Russia After the Invasion of Ukraine

Discussant: Sıdıka Başçı

11. Mehmet Baha Karan, Kazim Baris Atici, Burak Pirgaip, Hacettepe University, Türkiye

Title: The Role of Energy Policy in Shaping the German-Russian Relations

Discussant: Turalay Kenç (online)

15:00-16:30 CEVI Parallel Session 2 (Chair: Sidika Basci) (Room A201)

12. Gizem Arı, Hacettepe University, Türkiye

Title: Does company’s carbon emission efficiency decrease the cost of capital? The moderating role of firm size and the energy sector perspective in BRICS-T countries

Discussant: Ali Coşkun (online)

13. Bulent Cekic, Cem Menten, Hacettepe University, Türkiye

Title: Sustainable Energy Technologies and Innovations: Contributions of Entrepreneurs via Start-ups

Discussant: Mehmet Baha Karan

16:30-16:45 Coffee break

16:45-18:15 CEVI Parallel Session 3 (Room A220)

14. Fatma Özgü Serttaş, Ankara Yıldırım Beyazıt University, Türkiye

Title: Infinite-variance Unit root and Co-integration tests of Convergence of Electricity Prices: Evidence from the USA

Discussant: Mert Akyüz (online)

15. Mert Akyüz, Sıdıka Başçı, Ankara Yıldırım Beyazıt University, Türkiye

Title: Odd Prices at Retail Gasoline Stations: Evidence from a Developing and Inflationary Country

Discussant: Fatma Özgü Serttaş (online)

16. Mustafa KAYA, Mehmet Baha KARAN, Hacettepe University, Türkiye (Online)

Title: Electricity price forecasting in the Turkish intraday electricity market: Can Deep Learning Approaches Succeed in Forecasting?

Discussant: Sıdıka Başçı (on location)

16:45-18:15 CEVI Parallel Session 4 (Room A201)

17. Kayla Shevadena, Sıdıka Başçı, Ankara Yıldırım Beyazıt University, Türkiye

Title: Nickel-Powered Sustainability: Revolutionizing the Energy Economy Through Lithium Batteries

Discussant: Asad Ul Islam Khan (online)

18. Siti Asbi Othman, University of Tun Hussein Onn, Malaysia, Turalay Kenc, The INCEIF University, Malaysia

Title: Market Reaction and Default Risk of Green and Sustainability Sukuk

Discussant: Kazım Barış Atici

19. Asad Ul Islam Khan, Ibn Haldun University, Türkiye, Sıdıka Başçı, Ankara Yıldırım Beyazıt University, Türkiye

Title: The Role of Energy Innovation in Achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): Evidence from Nordic Countries

Discussant: Turalay Kenc (online)

19:30-22:00 Dinner.

Location: Concordia Taste Wrocław, Wyspa Słodowa 7, 50-266 Wrocław.

Friday 17 May 2024

09:00-10:30 ISINI Session 4 (Online. Chair: Joost Platje) (Room A220)

20. Francisco Vargas, Arnulfo Castellanos, University of Sonora, Hermosillo, Mexico, Systemic risk: A network approach to big systematically important European banks.

21. Laurenc De Vita, Independent Researcher, USA, What does “resilience” mean to risk management?

22. Katarzyna A. Kurek, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic, Jacek Strojny, Rzeszów University of Technology, Poland, Johan van Ophem, Wageningen University & Research, The Netherlands, Arguments for a community-based approach to the geothermal energy development

10:30-10:45 ISINI Coffee break

10:45-12:15 ISINI Session 5. System Risk Management Papers – discussion session (Room A220)

23. Joost (Johannes) Platje, Krystian Wojtkiewicz, Marek Krótkiewicz, Nadar Shah, Beata Andrzejewska, Mariusz Czekała, Language, cognitive biases and ignorance of system risk

24. Johannes (Joost) Platje, Joanna Hardukiewicz, Patrycja Karpińska, Krystian Wojtkiewicz, Marek Krótkiewicz, Nadar Shah, Is Education for Sustainable Development Lost in Translation? – wording, connotation, and the importance of worldviews for perception of system risk

12:15-12:30 Closing Session

 

ABSTRACTS

1. André Dorsman, Cyber security, a public-private cooperation

Cyber security is nowadays becoming more and more important. Not only the Ukraine war but also the hacks from countries like China and Iran learned that in Europe we have to defend ourself. Due to current legislation and regulations, a government's options are limited. Cooperation with the private sector can provide a solution. In the Netherlands, a good alternative is public-private cooperation between the government and pension funds. A characteristic of companies working in cyber security is that they have long-term customer contracts with governments or governmental organizations. In finance words, these contracts have low credit risks and high interest rate risks and are therefore attractive for pension funds. The recent years pension funds have based their investment decisions not only on expected return and risk but also on the ESG (environmental, social, and governance) policy of the companies in which they invest. An investment in cyber security can contribute to a positive ESG policy and is a form of impact investment that contributes to a better society.

2. Arturo Capasso, Università degli Studi del Sannio, Benevento Italy - WSB Merito Wroclaw Poland, Looking for a financial methodology to evaluate cybersecurity investments

The digital revolution, undergoing many aspects of business and human life, has created a huge amount of data, networks, and platforms for trading almost everything. Digital transactions often contain sensitive information giving hackers and cyber-criminals new opportunities to exploit. From a financial management perspective, the increasing number of investment projects related to cybersecurity poses an intriguing challenge, but in the meantime, it is not yet available a reliable methodology to evaluate the economic impact of this kind of investment.

The aim of this paper is to build a step-by-step guide on how to determine ROI in cybersecurity investments: calculating the TCO; identifying objectives and metrics; quantifying benefits: and estimating the risk reduction. We will consider factors such as the likelihood and impact of security incidents, the effectiveness of the security controls implemented, and the potential cost of mitigating a breach. By following these steps, organizations can effectively determine the ROI of their cybersecurity investments and make informed decisions to maximize the value of their security initiatives.

3. Sohrab Asgari, Payam Noor University, Tehran, Iran, Geopolitics of cybernetics

One of the most significant breakthroughs of technology is evolution of cybernetics and computing sciences. The extension of this development has covered the world. Meanwhile worldwide usage of computer sciences has caused worldwide issues. Although the Term “entropy” first was coined to refer to such issues but nowadays we are facing more destructive and more powerful entropies that their outcomes are considerable and can affect many aspects of national societies. In fact, in the third wave “the time” and “the place” have rushed together and as a result, effect of distance has disappeared and new version of space has been shaped. As a result, hacking attack takes place in a complicated ways and destroy the targets in short time. Vulnerability of countries to hackers’ attacks is not equal and underdeveloped countries are more fragile. These characteristics of geography of virtual space has converted it to geopolitics of virtual space.

Findings of this analytical article which has been done in a library method and with the strategy of cyber space geography studies, indicates that the geography of virtual space is one of the emerging academic topics. The geography of cyberspace becomes a geopolitical issue when it deals with inequality in the field of cyberspace security.

4. Marek Krótkiewicz, Krystian Wojtkiewicz, Wrocław University of Technology and Science, Poland, Cybersecurity and System Risk

Cybersecurity threats have become increasingly pervasive, posing substantial risks to critical systems and infrastructures. Addressing these risks requires a comprehensive understanding of the complex interdependencies within cyber-physical systems and the potential cascading effects of cyber attacks. We propose the evaluation of multiple dimensions of systems' vulnerability and resilience by quantifying systemic risk in cybersecurity. Firstly, we introduce a network-based model to represent the interconnectedness of components within a system, considering both cyber and physical elements. Through this model, we identify critical nodes and pathways susceptible to attack and analyze their impact on system resilience. Then, we propose metrics to assess the vulnerability of individual components based on their importance, exposure to threats, and the effectiveness of existing security measures. By quantifying vulnerability, we can prioritize resource allocation for risk mitigation strategies. Following, we propose system resilience measures, considering the system's ability to withstand and recover from cyber-attacks. Resilience metrics account for redundancy, diversity, and adaptive capacity, providing insights into the system's overall robustness.

Finally, we demonstrate the applicability of our approach through case studies in various domains, including critical infrastructure, financial systems, and healthcare. By quantifying systemic risk and identifying vulnerabilities, our approach enables stakeholders to make informed decisions regarding cybersecurity investments, incident response planning, and policy development.

5. Nadar Shah, Research Centre of System Risk Management, Intersectionality and Disasters: The perception,  experiences, and responses of immigrants  to heatwaves  in the context of climate change in Southampton City, UK.

Heatwaves have significant societal impacts, including increased mortality and morbidity, negative effects on mental health, additional stress on infrastructure and public services, disruption of daily routines, and wider impacts on ecosystems and the economy. Climate change is projected to exacerbate the frequency, duration, and intensity of heatwaves across the globe, including the UK. Immigrants are particularly vulnerable to heatwaves due to their socioeconomic disparities and unfamiliarity with local conditions. However, extreme weather research tends to view immigrant populations monolithically, missing the nuanced understanding needed. An intersectional approach can help reveal the disproportionate effects of climate-related disasters on specific axes of inequality. This study explores the perceptions, experiences, and responses of a diverse group of immigrants in Southampton, UK, in the context of escalating heatwave occurrences from an intersectional lens. This study applies a qualitative approach, conducting and thematically analyzing 16 semi-structured interviews with a diverse group of immigrants in Southampton, UK. Seven main themes based on the perspectives of study participants were identified, including:1) Heatwaves are an increasing problem; 2) Heatwaves present an extra burden on daily life and routines; 3) Heatwaves are impacting physical and mental well-being; 4) Vulnerability to heatwaves is perceived to vary with age, working conditions, socioeconomic conditions, and racial-geographic background; 5) Heatwaves are increasing economic burden at household and business levels; 6) Coping with heatwaves requires a multipronged approach, that is easier for some and more challenging for others; and 7) Inadequate public support for coping with heatwaves. The study reveals that the complex interplay of intersectional factors, such as race, age, familial responsibilities, existing health conditions, and socioeconomic status, influences how immigrants perceive, experience, and respond to heatwaves. The findings suggest a comprehensive understanding of vulnerability and resilience rooted in intersectional identities and recommend that disaster policies be informed by this nuanced understanding of intersectional dynamics.

6. Krystian Wojtkiewicz, Wrocław University of Technology and Science, Poland, Joost Platje, WSB Merito University in Wrocław, Research Centre for System Risk Management, Poland

Title: Principles of developing an instrument for assessing the ignorance of system risk.

This study presents an outline of the design and implementation of an interactive web application to assess the system risk perception by collecting and analyzing public opinions. The application is a sophisticated instrument for acquiring diverse perspectives on various topics pertinent to system risk. Leveraging evaluation mechanisms, the proposed application offers individualized feedback to participants while concurrently facilitating the construction of a robust statistical model based on aggregated responses. The integration of statistical techniques enables the identification of trends and patterns within the dataset, thus providing insights into public perceptions of system risk. Using this innovative tool, stakeholders can gain valuable insights into prevailing attitudes and misconceptions surrounding system risk, informing more effective risk mitigation strategies and policy decisions.

7. Diana Rokita-Poskart, Brygida Klemens, Danuta Jędrzejewska, Anna Jędrzejewska, Opole University of Technology, Poland

Title: Beyond Borders: Environmental Influences on Medical Students' Settlement Decisions

Despite existing research on migration determinants, few studies focus on analyzing how environmental factors influence decisions regarding settlement. Within the framework of climate change and increasing ecological awareness, it might seem that economic and social factors, which traditionally determine the choice of residence, are losing significance, especially among highly conscientious medical students.

A pilot study conducted among third-year military medical students at the Medical University of Łódź aimed to examine the role of environmental factors in the planned settlement locations of medical students, in comparison to economic and social aspects. The results of the study, conducted in April 2023, unequivocally indicate that issues related to the natural environment significantly impact decisions about the choice of residence, although they are not prioritized in comparison to perspectives of professional development, compensation levels, or proximity to family

8. Bartosz Fortuński, Opole University, Poland

Title: The impact of China's foreign trade on their Actual-Open CO2 emissions in the years 2000-2020 in the context of EU energy policy.

EU energy policy, focusing on reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, provides a crucial context for our research. The policy's goal of reducing GHG emissions by at least 20% by 2020, compared to 1990 levels, is a significant challenge. Understanding their global impact is paramount, as CO2 emissions are the leading greenhouse gas. Our study, which analyzes the impact of China's trade with major partners on actual CO2 emissions, provides valuable insights for policymakers striving to meet the EU's emission reduction targets.

Our research, conducted with meticulous adherence to the principles of the circular flow model, has revealed a significant influence of China's foreign trade on its CO2 emissions from 2000 to 2020. This finding, based on the robust Current-Open CO2 Emissions model, underscores the reliability and validity of our results.

The impact of China's foreign trade, a significant player in global trade, was consistently positive on Actual-Open emission of CO2 throughout the study period. As the world's largest exporter and second-largest importer, China's trade activities substantially influence global CO2 emissions. China's status as the largest CO2 emitter worldwide further amplified this impact. The research findings underscore the importance of considering these factors in the context of Fit for 55, making the results of this study crucial for policymakers and researchers.

CEVI Special CEVI Sessions on Energy and Value Issues

9. Mehmet Baha Karan, Kazim Baris Atici, Burak Pirgaip, Hacettepe University, Türkiye

Title: A Scenario Analysis on European Natural Gas Politics

This research aims to evaluate Turkey's potential as an energy hub in Southeastern Europe and examine energy policies after the Ukraine-Russia war. In this respect, it is important to analyze the new state that has emerged in the context of European-Russian relations. For this purpose, within the scope of the research, a scenario analysis regarding the future of the European natural gas sector was carried out in the light of the information obtained through online interviews with 17 participants related to the natural gas sector. The participants were gradually asked for their opinions on various alternatives regarding Europe-Russia relations under three main scenarios. The scenarios were prepared by the project team at three levels. Taking the medium term (5 years) into account, the participants were asked to first evaluate the probability of each main scenario occurring, and then evaluate the probability of various sub-scenarios occurring if each main scenario occurs. Participants were asked to assign probability values to scenarios and/or rank between scenarios. The participants in the interviews consist of senior managers working in companies or non-governmental organizations related to the natural gas sector and people who provide consultancy to the sector. The interviews were held during June and July 2023, were recorded with the permission of the participants, and were later converted into meeting minutes by the project team. As a result of examining the 472-minute interview records, the probability values predicted by each participant regarding the scenarios were revealed. Then, the opinions of the participants were brought together and the findings were analyzed.

10. Mehmet Baha Karan, Kazim Baris Atici, Burak Pirgaip, Hacettepe University, Türkiye, Göktuğ Şahin, Ankara Haci Bayram Veli University, Türkiye

Title: The Natural Gas War Between Europe and Russia After the Invasion of Ukraine

This study aims to explain and evaluate the Euro-Russian natural gas war, which started after the Russian attack on Ukraine in 2022, within the scope of the energy policies of both sides before and after the war. This study evaluates short-term and medium-term measures of Europe and Russia. In addition, a SWOT analysis is made, both sides’ strengths and weaknesses are discussed, and their opportunities and threats are explained. As a result, it is revealed that both sides will suffer from the gas war. However, in the medium term, Europe's developing LNG market and renewable resources may emerge stronger from this war. Still, Russia, which has lost its political and economic power over Europe, will suffer more.

11. Mehmet Baha Karan, Kazim Baris Atici, Burak Pirgaip, Hacettepe University, Türkiye

Title: The Role of Energy Policy in Shaping the German-Russian Relations

Motivated by the changing landscape of international relations and the bilateral dynamics between Germany and Russia, this study offers a unique perspective on the German-Russian relationship, shedding light on the complexities that underlie their economic policy uncertainties over the period of 1994 to 2023. We employ a comprehensive approach, starting with static unconditional correlation and dynamic conditional correlation analyses to examine the strength and temporal variations in the correlation between economic policy uncertainties of these two major nations. We then utilize standard and time-varying Granger causality analysis to uncover evolving causal relationships over time. Importantly, we use a novel energy policy uncertainty index for Germany to explore potential interconnections between economic and energy policy uncertainties. This study reveals a unidirectional causal relationship running from the German to the Russian economic policy uncertainty and emphasizes the importance of incorporating energy policy uncertainty in informed economic policy decision-making and international cooperation.

12. Gizem Arı, Hacettepe University, Türkiye

Title: Does company’s carbon emission efficiency decrease the cost of capital? The moderating role of firm size and the energy sector perspective in BRICS-T countries

Purpose – This study aims to examine the effects of firm-level carbon emission reduction efficiency on weighted average cost of capital (WACC), cost of equity capital (CoE) and cost of debt (CoD) in the energy sector. It also tests whether the cost of capital and carbon emission efficiency are moderated by firm size.

Design/methodology/approach – The study is conducted on a sample of 85 energy companies operating in BRICS-T countries using data for the period 2016-2022. Financial data and emission scores of the companies is obtained from Refinitiv Eikon. Multilevel regression analysis method is applied in terms of its suitability for the data set.

Findings – Using a sample of energy companies operating in BRICS-T countries, this study reveals that the weighted average cost of capital will increase for companies with higher carbon emission efficiency. The results also demonstrate that the cost of equity capital is positively correlated with emission efficiency, albeit at a low level of significance. However, there is no evidence to support that emission efficiency affects the cost of debt. In addition, there is limited evidence that firm size moderates the relationship between cost of capital and emission efficiency.

Practical/social implications – Legislation in BRICS-T countries should develop effective incentives for environmental sustainability and reduction of carbon emissions. A company with high emission efficiency should create strategies to combat its impact on rising costs.

Originality/value – To the best of the researcher’s knowledge, there is a lack of studies focusing on the BRICS-T region, which is an ideal setting for the study due to the Paris Climate Agreement signed by many countries to avert the climate crisis. This study focuses on energy firms, which are more prone to contribute to environmental pollution.

Keywords BRICS-T, carbon emission efficiency, corporate environmental responsibility, cost

of capital, energy sector

13. Bulent Cekic, Cem Menten, Hacettepe University, Türkiye

Title: Sustainable Energy Technologies and Innovations: Contributions of Entrepreneurs via Start-ups

Energy entrepreneurship is essential for promoting sustainability through innovation and the implementation of energy-efficient technologies. It involves individuals and teams from diverse backgrounds, including business, research, and regional development, working together to initiate energy system transitions. Research has shown that entrepreneurial leadership has a positive impact on business sustainability, financial innovation, and process innovation in energy companies. Entrepreneurs contribute to the development of sustainable energy technologies and innovations, overcoming barriers and driving change in the energy sector. Business activities in the energy economy are driven by project management, which facilitates the implementation of high-tech investment and innovation projects. Energy entrepreneurship is crucial for achieving sustainable and environmentally friendly energy development. Entrepreneurs play a key role in driving innovation, implementing energy-efficient technologies, and overcoming barriers to change.

14. Fatma Özgü Serttaş, Ankara Yıldırım Beyazıt University, Türkiye

Title: Infinite-variance Unit root and Co-integration tests of Convergence of Electricity Prices: Evidence from the USA

This study analyzes the four main electricity markets in the USA for long-run convergence. It is assumed that the log returns of electricity prices are coming from the stable Paretian distribution family which allows for infinite-variance. High volatility of the high frequency data on electricity prices are captured by tail index estimation results of all log returns which show significant deviations from finite-variance Gaussian normality assumption. Tail behaviors of electricity market prices show evidence of tail heaviness that are not compatible with the Gaussian normal distribution's. The long-run behaviors of electricity prices are analyzed by unit root and co-integration tests that are robust to heavy tails. Long term dynamics analyses are performed to reflect the existence of common trends and movements within different states of the US, which suggests for the possibility of making common policy decisions regarding these markets in general. The results show that there exists common long-term trends among the electricity prices in the USA. This conclusion holds under both the normality and stable distribution assumptions.

Keywords: US electricity prices, stable distribution, normal distribution, unit root tests, cointegration tests.

15. Mert Akyüz, Sıdıka Başçı, Ankara Yıldırım Beyazıt University, Türkiye

Title: Psychological Prices at Retail Gasoline Stations: Evidence from a Developing and Inflationary Country

Context/Purpose: Psychological price has recently played an essential role in economic actors' decision-making process. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of Psychological Prices on retail gasoline prices in Turkiye, a developing country grappling with inflationary challenges.

  • Methods: Pooled OLS and Panel Data Fixed Effects methods are applied. The raw daily data of retail prices of three big gasoline companies for 81 cities of Türkiye for the period January 2017 and August 2023 was obtained from the Energy Market Regularity Authority of Türkiye and processed by the authors in a way that would serve the aim of the research.
  • Results: There is a negative relationship between 9-ending prices and gasoline prices, while a positive relationship exists between 0-ending prices and gasoline prices.
  • Interpretation: The results of this study are different from the results of studies in the empirical literature, which are based on the sample from developed countries. Our results do not support the Psychological Price Theory for Turkiye because of the high inflation experienced during the Covid-19 pandemic period.
  • Conclusion: Based on the daily data of retail prices of three big gasoline companies for 81 cities of Türkiye, we were able to suggest that 9-ending prices do not serve as signals to consumers in Turkiye and, therefore, do not influence purchasing behavior because of higher inflation.

Keywords: Psychological Prices, Gasoline Stations, Developing and Inflationary Countries.

16. Mustafa KAYA, Mehmet Baha KARAN, Hacettepe University, Türkiye

Title: Electricity price forecasting in the Turkish intraday electricity market: Can Deep Learning Approaches Succeed in Forecasting?

Recent studies have attempted to use machine learning approaches in electricity price forecasting to build systems with high accuracy and forecasting success. By using deep learning models that can predict the trends of intraday electricity prices, the return on investment for short-term trading can be maximized. This paper will discuss various artificial intelligence (AI) and deep learning approaches for electricity price forecasting in the intraday electricity market. The objective of the paper is to build and compare various electricity price forecasting models using LSTM, GRU and "Attention Layer Transformer Encoder-Decoder" networks for electricity price forecasting in the intraday electricity market. It also discusses the limitations and accuracy of these models in terms of error calculation in terms of percentage accuracy or standard accuracy metrics such as RMSE, MAPE and MAE. The findings reveal that these deep learning models are effective tools for electricity price forecasting in the intraday electricity market.

17. Kayla Shevadena, Sıdıka Başçı, Ankara Yıldırım Beyazıt University, Türkiye

Title: Nickel-Powered Sustainability: Revolutionizing the Energy Economy Through Lithium Batteries

The world's energy landscape is changing fast, with a new industry emerging to reshape how we generate and use power. One big player in this shift is lithium batteries, which are becoming essential for storing energy sustainably. This paper looks closely at how nickel, a crucial ingredient in these batteries, is driving sustainability while boosting the energy economy.

As societies worldwide aim to use cleaner, more sustainable energy sources, lithium batteries offer a promising solution. Nickel plays a vital role here because its unique properties make batteries better, lasting longer and working more efficiently. By understanding how nickel and lithium batteries work together, we can see how they're leading us towards a greener future.

As the world moves towards using more renewable energy and electric power, the demand for high-performance lithium batteries is skyrocketing. This growing need for batteries isn't just about powering gadgets; it's becoming central to the economy. And nickel is key to making it all happen, supporting the growth of industries that rely on environmentally-friendly products and helping countries' economies thrive.

Batteries are becoming as valuable as oil, driving efficiency and sustainability across various sectors like transportation and renewable energy. Countries like Indonesia, Philippines, Rusia, Australia dan Canada with the world's largest nickel industries, are experiencing significant economic growth as a result of this demand. This means we need to make sure we're getting nickel responsibly and using it wisely. By exploring new ways to mine and use nickel, we can minimize harm to the environment and make sure everyone benefits from its use. Ultimately, by harnessing nickel's power in lithium batteries, we can build a more sustainable future where the economy and the environment go hand in hand.

18. Siti Asbi Othman, University Tun Hussein Onn, Malaysia, Turalay Kenc, The INCEIF University, Malaysia

Title: Market Reaction and Default Risk of Green and Sustainability Sukuk

Islamic bonds or Sukuk present a significant opportunity for green and sustainable finance in Malaysia and the Middle East, which have established Islamic financial markets. This paper examines whether existing environmental, social and governance (ESG) and socially responsible investing (SRI) frameworks provide the necessary structures for green and sustainable Sukuk financing. We analyze stock market reactions to green Sukuk issuances using event studies with the Market Model, CAPM, and Fama French Three-Factor models. The Fama French model yields slightly different results, indicating its additional parameters provide value. Further credit risk analysis of issuing firms utilizes the KMV model, a structural approach to estimate expected default frequency (EDF). Despite Sukuk bonds being ring-fenced, results suggest firms issuing green or sustainable Sukuk may still have heightened default risks.

19. Asad Ul Islam Khan, Ibn Haldun University, Türkiye, Sıdıka Başçı, Ankara Yıldırım Beyazıt University, Türkiye

Title: The Role of Energy Innovation in Achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): Evidence from Nordic Countries

Engaging in energy innovation can serve as a viable approach to attaining Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The concept of Sustainable Development Goals has been a highly significant topic since its introduction. The Nordic countries are renowned for their significant contributions to innovation and their conscientiousness in environmental stewardship. Nevertheless, this study exclusively focuses on four countries within the Nordic region: Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. The study aims to analyze the significance and impact of energy innovation on the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals by investigating the relationship between greenhouse gas emissions (a measure of the effect on the goals) and the number of patents granted for energy-related ideas (representing energy innovation). The results reveal that energy innovation has a direct impact on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, thereby indirectly influencing the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals. This is made apparent by the outcomes of the estimation of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model for each individual country. All four countries exhibit an inverse correlation between greenhouse gas emissions and energy innovation. The findings of this study indicate that these countries ought to encourage advancements in the field of energy innovation and its practical applications to further their development.

Keywords: Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), Energy Innovation, Sustainable Development Goals, Nordic Countries.

20. Francisco Vargas, Arnulfo Castellanos, University of Sonora, Hermosillo, Mexico, Systemic risk under network perspective.

This paper employs a network approach to examine systemic risk in major European banks, focusing on understanding contagion mechanisms within the financial system. By analyzing interbank networks, the study investigates how individual banks influence the propagation of impacts, identifies feasible contagion paths, and assesses remote vulnerability. Additionally, it quantifies the impact of bank defaults on capital buffers and conducts simulation exercises to evaluate the resilience of the financial system to shocks. Utilizing the DebtRank methodology, the paper identifies systemically important institutions and evaluates overall systemic risk.

21. Laurenc De Vita, Independent Researcher, USA, What does “resilience” mean to risk management?

This is a thumbnail sketch of the relationship between resilience, risk management, and prediction. We determine that resilience is the primary goal of risk management, and prediction is the primary tool. “Resilience” is defined as the ability to avoid or recover from perturbation, and “risk” as the likelihood of perturbation, and the price of participation in networks of complex systems. Concepts of “energy” are discussed which imply methodologies for measuring energy flows through and around the subject system, whatever that is, a nation, an agency, a business, a family.

22. Katarzyna A. Kurek, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic, Jacek Strojny, Rzeszów University of Technology, Poland, Johan van Ophem, Wageningen University & Research, The Netherlands, Arguments for a community-based approach to the geothermal energy development

Our paper investigates the theoretical foundation for developing renewable geothermal resources locally. For this reason, we pay attention to the role of communities in geothermal development. We derive it from the integral characteristics of geothermal energy next to the shift in the energy transition policies to focus on managing green resources locally. This study presents arguments for a framework that approaches geothermal resources as an endogenous factor of community development. To analyse it, we create a model that explains the local economic characteristics of geothermal exploitation beyond its geological conditions. It aims to conceptualise a community-based geothermal development standard referring to the endogeneity principle. Geothermal energy is given attention since the characteristics of this resource determine its use locally. This induces the internalisation of labour and technology in the local economic system, a specific condition for local geothermal projects where a community remains a prime beneficiary. We argue that the role of communities in geothermal exploitation is pivotal in the process of green growth for further expansion of geothermal energy use.

23. Joost (Johannes) Platje, Krystian Wojtkiewicz, Marek Krótkiewicz, Nadar Shah, Beata Andrzejewska, Mariusz Czekała, Language, cognitive biases and ignorance of system risk

The discussion regarding this paper is about how to operationalize the research on the following hypotheses:

Hypothesis 1. People ignore system risk.

Hypothesis 2a. People assess the probability of system risk based on their individual risk perception;

Hypothesis 2b. People assess the impact of system risk based on their individual risk perception.

A theoretical underpinning of why cognitive biases are expected to strengthen or weaken the perceived probability and impact of system risk. An example of understanding key notions in individual and system risk management will be developed. This will require a discussion on:

a. The meaning of notions such as sustainable development, resilience, risk, probability, system, and randomness.

b. The emotional load of certain notions – how they can trigger different types of emotional reactions. As it is expected that individual and system risk perception is related to worldviews (e.g., Attitudes Towards Sustainable Business Practices (Ng and Burke, 2010), Dominant Social Paradigm (Kilbourne et al., 2001, 2002), and other variables, the emotional load of essential words needs consideration. For example, when someone has pro-market views, it can be expected that the word “state” triggers a negative emotion.

c. Identification of relevant cognitive bias(es).

Hypothesis 3a. Language stimulates cognitive biases, which change individual risk perception.

Hypothesis 3b. Language stimulates cognitive biases, which change system risk perception.

Hypothesis 3c. The strength of the impact of language-related cognitive biases on individual risk depends on worldviews.

Hypothesis 3d. The strength of the impact of language-related cognitive biases on system risk depends on worldviews.

24. Johannes (Joost) Platje, Joanna Hardukiewicz, Patrycja Karpińska, Krystian Wojtkiewicz, Marek Krótkiewicz, Nadar Shah, Is Education for Sustainable Development Lost in Translation? – wording, connotation, and the importance of worldviews for perception of system risk

This is a paper in development. A text in English has been created on different system risks. The text has been translated by AI (Gemini) and two professionals into Polish. The Polish texts are to be compared on complexity and difficulty. The research aims to test the following hypotheses:

1. The complexity of a text influences system risk perceptions.

2. Proper understanding of key concepts (e.g., risk, system risk, shortage) influences system risk perception.

 

The purpose of the Society is: to foster the discovery and dissemination of new ideas, in particular in economics and other social sciences, to test these ideas and to study the application to problems of the real world. The Society aspires to realize its purpose by creating and upholding an environment where economists meet, consult and cooperate with scholars from other disciplines.

The conference focuses on the following thematic focal points:

  1. Cybersecurity (call for papers https://www.isini.info/index.php/en/2e)
  2. System Risk Management (call for papers https://www.isini.info/index.php/en/system-risk-management
  3. Special CEVI session on Energy and Valuation Issues (call for papers https://www.isini.info/index.php/en/special-cevi-session-on-energy-and-valuation-issues)
  4. Other topics fitting into the ISINI philosophy.

Venue

The conference will take place in the old city of Wroclaw, the European cultural capital of 2016. Wroclaw, located in the centre of Europe at about 300 km distance from Berlin, Dresden, Cracow and Prague, is the beautiful capital of Lower Silesia (Poland). With 650 000 inhabitants it is a cultural and educational centre (7 universities with about 100 000 students). Wroclaw can be reached conveniently by plane, car, train and bus.

Information about the city can be found at the following websites:
http://www.wroclaw.pl/en

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wroclaw

 

Selected papers, after positive double-blind peer review, may be considered for publication in the:

  • Central European Review of Economics and Management (www.cerem-review.eu).

The conference fee of 120 euros includes meals and coffee breaks during the conference. The fee does not include accommodation, but the conference organizers can help find a hotel.

After acceptance, the conference fee can be transferred to:

Uniwersytet WSB Merito we Wroclawiu

PL 55 1090 2402 0000 0001 1479 5322

SWIFT: WBKPPLPP

Santander Bank Polska S.A., Ul. Gubińska 17, 54-434 Wrocław

Reference: ISINI2024 and name of participant

List of hotels nearby:
1. Park Hotel Diament, standard: Hotel ****, cost: approx. PLN 240, distance: 700 m on foot (approx. 13 min), 1 km by car (approx. 4 min), link: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Zxv7JrL8CcMx6DMF6 
2. DB Hotel, standard: Hotel *****, cost: approx. PLN 312, distance: 1.8 km on foot (approx. 24 min), 2.3 km by car (approx. 6 min), link: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Ae7C4uhugjCSBUAs6
3. Five Stars Bed&Breakfast, standard: Hotel ****, cost: PLN 200, distance: 3.3 km on foot (approx. 46 min), 3.6 km by car (approx. 9 min) - distance from the Market Square: 700 m on foot, link : https://maps.app.goo.gl/5bTySRZgfQ7Q9Cxs7
4. Dwór Polski, standard: Hotel ****, cost: approx. PLN 270, distance: 3.8 km on foot (approx. 52 min), 4.9 km by car (approx. 16 min) - distance from the Market Square: 300 m on foot, link: https://maps.app.goo.gl/w7HE55UVgfh4pLX88

Organizing Committee  

Joost Platje, UWSB Merito in Wrocław, Research Federation WSB-DSW Merito, Poland

Anna Motylska-Kuźma, DSW University of Lower Silesia, Poland

Monika Chodorek, Research Federation WSB-DSW Merito, Poland

Markus Will, University of Applied Sciences Zittau/Goerlitz, Germany

Walter Leal, Hamburg University of Applied Sciences, Germany

Nadar Shah, University of Portsmouth, England

 

Scientific Board

Joost Platje, ISINI President,  UWSB Merito in Wrocław, Research Federation WSB-DSW Merito, Poland

Markus Will, ISINI vice-president, University of Applied Sciences Zittau/Goerlitz, Germany

Katarzyna Kurek, ISINI vice-president, Czech University of Life Sciences in Prague, Czech Republic

Johan van Ophem, ISINI Secretary, Wageningen University & Research, The Netherlands

Francisco Vargas, former ISINI President, University of Sonora, Hermosillo, Mexico

Wim Westerman, CEVI, University of Groningen, The Netherlands

André Dorsman, Power of Cooperation International (POCI), The Netherlands

Walter Leal, Hamburg University of Applied Sciences, Germany

Monika Chodorek, Research Federation WSB-DSW Merito, Poland

Andrzej Graczyk, Wrocław University of Economics, Poland

Arnold Bernaciak,WSB Merito University in Poznań, Research Federation WSB-DSW Merito, Poland

Andrzej Bujak, WSB Merito University in Wrocław, Research Federation WSB-DSW Merito, Poland

Jacek Borzyszkowski, Research Federation WSB-DSW Merito, vice president, Poland

Wiesława Caputa, WSB Merito University in Poznań, Research federation WSB-DSW Merito, Poland

Marcin Kalinowski, Research Federation WSB-DSW Merito, Poland

Marcin Starnawski, DSW University of Lower Silesia, Research Federation WSB-DSW Merito, Poland

Marek Krótkiewicz, Wrocław University of Science and Technology, Poland

Krystian Wojtkiewicz, Wrocław University of Science and Technology, Poland

Tino Schuette, University of Applied Sciences Zittau/Goerlitz, Germany